When Prime Ministers decide to shuffle their Cabinets, much of the media commentary focuses on the past – who is being cast aside because of missteps or underperformance. From inside government, however, the real story is what a shuffle tells us about the future. Where the steady performers in Cabinet are assigned, what responsibilities they are given and who stays put says a great deal about the government’s preoccupations and agenda going forward.
From this perspective, Prime Minister Harper’s Cabinet shuffle this morning provides some clues about what to expect from the government when Parliament resumes in March. Mr. Harper remains focused on a 2010 agenda that emphasizes economic recovery and ensuring that the government’s stimulus plan is having a real impact on job creation.
As such, he has kept his core economic team in place, with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, Industry Minister Tony Clement, Transport and Infrastructure Minister John Baird and Human Resources Minister Diane Finley unchanged. He has also kept other senior Ministers in place “to finish the job” in several areas key to the governments agenda – these include Peter MacKay at Defence, Rob Nicholson at Justice and Jim Prentice at Environment.
The most important change in today’s shuffle involves the move of Stockwell Day to Treasury Board (from International Trade), a signal of the government’s intention to tackle public spending with vigour. Other key appointments saw Vic Toews go to Public Safety (from Treasury Board), Peter Van Loan move to International Trade (from Public Safety) and Christian Paradis promoted to Natural Resources (from Public Works).
The significance of all of these is outlined below:
Stockwell Day has been one of the quiet success stories of the Harper government. Since 2006, he has proven himself a steady hand with a deft touch in two sensitive portfolios (Public Safety and International Trade), skills he will need to apply in his new job as the President of the Treasury Board. The government is due to begin collective bargaining with a number of its largest unions in the year ahead and, perhaps most importantly, the size of the deficit will require a comprehensive reevaluation of program spending across all departments. This will be run by Treasury Board. His personality and experience (he was the Alberta Treasurer who balanced the Klein government’s books) lend themselves to the task ahead. Despite the new portfolio, Mr. Day will retain responsibility for the government’s Asia Pacific Gateway strategy.
Vic Toews’ move to the Public Safety portfolio matches the new Minister with law and order responsibilities that have always been his forte. With growing emphasis on managing security questions effectively – particularly in light of the concerns in the United States – the need for a forceful personality with an interest in these issues makes it him a logical choice. Mr. Van Loan’s appointment to the Trade portfolio will also ensure that the bilateral trade relationship with the US will be informed by someone who has a strong understanding of the security issues between the two countries.
Christian Paradis’ promotion to Natural Resources is an appointment that will spark some surprise. Since becoming a senior member of Cabinet as Public Works Minister in 2008, Mr. Paradis has maintained a relatively low profile. Nonetheless, he has built a reputation as a steady hand who enjoys the Prime Minister’s confidence and will likely now cement his position as the government’s defacto senior Minister in Quebec (he also has responsibility for economic development in the province). The Minister will be responsible for managing the controversial nuclear file, a difficult and challenging task as the government seeks to find ways of privatizing AECL. In taking on the Natural Resources portfolio – which encompasses forestry, mining and energy – Mr. Paradis will also have responsibility for communicating the government’s approach to the climate change file in Quebec. It also likely means that the details of the climate change file will remain driven by Environment Minister Jim Prentice, with the hands-on involvement of the PMO.
The other notable change today involves the appointment of Rona Ambrose back to the senior Cabinet ranks, as Public Works Minister. After a turbulent tenure as Environment Minister, she has spent most of the past three years in relatively junior portfolios. The shuffle also included enhanced representation in Atlantic Canada. New Brunswick Minister Keith Ashfield has been given the Revenue portfolio in addition to his responsibilities for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency and New Brunswick MP Rob Moore is the new addition to Cabinet as Minister of State responsible for Small Business and Tourism.
Today’s changes will not fundamentally alter the government’s direction on key economic issues, except that Stockwell Day’s new responsibilities likely herald the beginning of a period where fiscal restraint is in sharper focus.
