There was an interesting poll out over the weekend from Ipsos- Reid’s Darrell Bricker. The horserace numbers are in keeping with other recent polls that show a considerable tightening of the race between the Conservatives and the Liberals, with the Liberals rising at the expense of the NDP/Greens/other voter pool. If these numbers hold it will mean nobody will want an election this spring- the NDP would lose seats, the Bloc could lose a few or stay the same, and the Liberal’s best case scenario is a slim minority.
From where I sit, governing with a five seat minority when it comes time to pay the stimulus piper, isn’t much of a prize. Throw in a possible bout of pension flu on any showdown votes ( a sizeable number of MPs elected in 2004 will see their pensions vest this summer) and I doubt the lawn signs will be out this spring. Or until someone breaks the log jam. But that’s another matter.
What jumped out at me from Bricker’s numbers is the income demographic splits. We all know the Government has been emulating (with much success) the tactics of former Australian PM John Howard’s (“I’m for the battlers” ) proletariat-focused policy and communications efforts. Support for the military, tough on crime, working/middle class tax cuts etc… Much has been written about the government winning over the Tim Horton’s customers versus the latte at Starbucks crowd. I drink both. Call me indecisive. Or inclusive. Or a caffeine addict.
But this latest poll shows that the coffee proxy batttle might not be that simple at the ballot box. According to Ipsos-Reid:
- amongst those who make less than $30,000/year, the Liberals lead with 31%, followed by the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 20%.
- For those who make between $30,000 and $60,000 per year, the Liberals lead with 33% followed by the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 21%.
- For those who make $60,000 per year or more, the Conservatives lead with 39%, followed by the Liberals at 30% and the NDP at 14%.
With Quebec gains off the table for various reasons, the Conservatives have been working to build a coalition of support amongst Canadians by portraying themselves and Prime Minister Harper, as the party/leader that cares most about the issues that keep “ordinary Canadians” up at night.
They’ve done a great job at it in recent years but these numbers have to be of concern. Small changes in these population-heavy demographics can swing seats in a hurry.
Timbit with that?
