4. The next federal election is scheduled for fall 2012. The United States will also be holding election at that time which is very likely to be a referendum on President Obama’s first term.  Given the vitriol coming from the States during the mid-terms last fall, I would not want to be running a federal campaign in Canada with the Tea Party or a stagnant US recovery in my rear view mirror.  Some would see this as a huge risk to the Conservative government but I see all parties seeing some risk from running a concurrent Canadian campaign to a US campaign.

3. The Government is getting solid marks for its management of the economy coming out of the recession.  As the economy grows it will be faced with larger issues of deficit reduction and investment in social programs (pensions, health care, day care).  An election now would allow them to run on a record of economic management and get out before the social debate takes over the ballot box.  Although you can expect both the Liberals and NDP to do everything possible to make the next federal election about the social contract the federal government has (or should have) with Canadians.

2. In order to avoid an election at least one opposition party needs to support Jim Flaherty’s budget.  At some point in time over the next 18 months, that same opposition party will have to answer the question as to why they allowed the Conservatives to continue governing if they thought they needed to be replaced at the next election.  Parties need to be in election messaging now (as has been apparent in messaging from the Prime Minister and Michael Ignatieff this week) and not taking an aggressive stance now against the budget is not likely to serve any opposition party well come election time.

1. Health Care.  With 5 provincial elections taking place in fall 2011, many Canadians will be focused on the key issues being raised within each province.  As I explained in my last post the key issue during these provincial elections is going to be Health Care.  As provinces complain about health services they will point to federal funding (or lack thereof) as being the primary reason they can’t make the investments necessary to improve health services for residents. Blame the feds is an old provincial trick that has worked well for many years (there is a good reason why Ontario usually elects the opposite party provincially to who is governing federally).  The federal government may see getting an election out of the way ahead of the ‘Blame the Feds’ game to be in their best interest and ‘allow’ themselves to be forced into an election.  If an election waits until 2012, the federal government would have to put forward a strong plan on the future level of federal funding for Health Care and, as we’ve seen in the past, this debate is a dangerous one for any government.

In no particular order, here are my favorite books I’d recommend:

1. What It Takes, Richard Ben Cramer

   This book chronicles the experiences of the Republican and Democratic candidates who were vying for the Presidency in 1988. I highly recommend it to anyone who is interested in learning more about the daily grind of a national campaign and the unique candidate personalities of George Bush, Bob Dole, Michael Dukakis, Gary Hart, Richard Gephardt and current American Vice President Joe Biden.

2. Hardball, Chris Matthews

   Matthews was a former Senate aide, presidential speech writer and assistant to Tip O’Neill.  His book is often referred to as a contemporary version of Machiavelli’s the Prince. It is considered by many as a must have field guide for survival in the modern day world of politics.

3. Harper’s Team: Behind the Scenes in the Conservative Rise to Power, Tom Flanagan

   Tom Flanagan served as one of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s top strategists for many years. He was instrumental in the Conservatives Rise to Power (hence the title of his book). Flanagan’s book paints a portrait of a young Stephen Harper and his evolution to a ‘giant killer’ that put an end to thirteen years of Liberal Party reign.

4. The Revolution will not be Televised, Joe Trippi

   Joe Trippi was Howard Dean’s Presidential Campaign Manager and can largely take credit for the integration of social media into mainstream politics. Howard Dean’s campaign is infamously remembered for this incident:

   But, Trippi’s book takes you much deeper and gives you a perspective on a people’s movement in politics that was bigger than the candidate and campaign ever imagined was possible.

5. The Big Red Machine: How the Liberal Party Dominates Canadian Politics, Stephen Clarkson

   The title is a little behind the times eh? Well give some credit to its author Stephen Clarkson. When he published the book in October 2005 the Liberals were still in power, the Conservatives were still divided and nobody knew who Justice John Gomery was. Clarkson’s book is a detailed account of the nine electoral contests from 1974 – 2004 and is certainly a must read for anyone who is interested in the last three decades of Canadian politics.

6. The Dark Side, Steve Paikin

   Paikin who is currently the host of The Agenda on TVO has authored three books about Canadian politics; my personal favorite is the Dark Side. Paikin’s book takes a no-holds-barred approach to looking at the potential pitfalls of a public life. A great read for anyone who is considering running for public office or for anyone who thinks politicians lead a life without worry.

7. W.A.C. Bennett, The Rise of British Columbia (BC), David J. Mitchell

   Mitchell’s book is a biography of BC’s most famous Premier. This is required reading for anyone who is trying to understand the complex world of BC politics. The book covers many of the major developments that helped shaped the province throughout Bennett’s lengthy political career. It also covers the years after his death, the destruction of the Social Credit Party and the emergence of the BC Liberals.

The sites listed below are essential reads for me every day and can be valuable tools for anyone tracking federal political coverage. 

1. National Newswatch – National Newswatch is the absolute ‘must read’ site for political players in Ottawa.  This news aggregator site lists the top stories making news on a daily basis while also linking to the primary columnists with each of the major news organizations to provide a good picture of the news terrain.  As an issue heats up over the course of a day, National Newswatch will almost always be the first site with links to the relevant news stories – providing varied voices on the event so the reader can see the different points of view providing coverage. 
2. Pundits Guide to Canadian Federal Elections – Pundits Guide provides some of the best analysis and information on election readiness and election results for each of the federal parties.  Not only does the site cover nominated candidates but it also provides analysis on the financial health of each of the federal parties as they report their quarterly and annual fundraising numbers.  Pundits Guide understands the nuances of Election Canada rules better than almost anyone on the web and has become a must visit site for anyone hoping to track election readiness.
3. Inkless Wells – Paul Wells has been one of the best political reads in Ottawa for over a decade – even while he was transferred to cover events in Europe for a short time.  While his weekly column for MacLean’s continues to be the reason why many of us read MacLean’s, his blog musings on ‘Inkless Wells’ provide intelligent, well researched looks at the issues of the day.  He is unafraid to call politicians out when they are underperforming – witness his reporting on Stéphane Dion’s leadership – or report on  less covered national pieces with zeal – like his coverage of the ‘Rights and Democracy’ standoff.  Part of what makes Paul Wells a must read is he understands all aspects of politics – both in terms of strategy to policy development – and this makes his insight especially pertinent to political audiences.
4. David Akin – David Akin, now with Sun Media, has been one of the best examples of a journalist using social media to both find stories and promote stories he is covering.  Like Wells, Akin is more than willing to delve into research and data to prove or disprove an argument being made by a federal politician.  He is not afraid to ask the tough question at a news conference or call a politician to task when they aren’t well prepared on a specific issue.
5. Public Eye Online – while BC based Public Eye Online does not look at national stories in the same way Ottawa based journalists do on issues, it is able to provide excellent coverage and analysis of both federal and provincial politics in BC.  Like Pundits Guide, Public Eye Online provides strong analysis on election readiness at both the riding and regional levels.  I began reading the website during a leadership campaign for its unique insight and analysis it provided of the campaign in BC but have continued reading it because it provides analysis of BC issues in a way that is hard to find anywhere else.

To me, my day would not be complete without paying a visit to each of these websites or blogs on a daily basis.  Their combined strength keeps me on top of federal political issues so that I have the information I need to provide my own analysis to our clients.

Today’s news conference on the Hill  that saw Stockwell Day sparring with reporters who eventually accused him of “not making any sense” on crime data and the census, is telling. Has the Ottawa press gallery finally turned on the government?

The Harper government should take solace in the fact that it happens to all governments eventually- some sooner than others. And five and half years is a respectable honeymoon by any measure.

But once it does, it’s so hard to right the ship.

I had the honor of working on Mr. Chretien’s tour in the 2000 election when the media turned on then reform party leader Stockwell Day. Whether it was man mingling with dinosaurs, the water flowing the wrong way (sorry Tim), or announcing his tough on crime platform the day Stats Can put out the quarterly crime stats showing a 20 year low-Day just couldn’t do anything right in the eyes of the media.

The shoe was on the other foot in the 2005 election for the Liberals when the gallery just grew tired of all Paul Martin’s fundamental priorites and started to paint him as a spent force.

The 5th estate are still a powerful influence in Canadian politics, despite the proliferation of voices via digital media. And when they feel you’re trying to dupe them, man, they will turn on you in a heartbeat.

I think Mr. Day felt that this afternoon. It will be interesting to see if this is a trend or a one-day wonder.

Because this much is true: for all the talk about strategy, fundraising and war-rooms;  having the media gunning for you  is way more of a threat.  Like Napoleon in Russia, you can’t win fighting a war on two fronts.

As I listen to all the hubbub about the census long form, I can’t stop wondering why we even have a census. Don’t get me wrong: I’m not questioning the need for knowing how many people do in fact inhabit this country of ours, and where they live precisely, and how much money they make, and how many cars they own, and how many bathrooms they maintain in their homes. All these are wonderfully important things to know for a sheer endless number of reasons.

No, what I don’t understand why we need a census to know all this?

Think about it:

Every time you interact with any level of government somewhere in this country, you have to produce some form of photo ID, each of which is linked with each other directly or indirectly, and all of which can be traced back to your SIN, which is given to you practically at birth.

Every single transaction you have with governments at any level is stored on some database on some computer somewhere, and each of these computers is somehow linked to the internet one way or the other.

All these databases maintained by all the different levels of government out there are keeping track of all of our lives on almost a daily basis. Some of us may find that scary and disconcerting, but it is a reality. Even the fact that you right now are reading this blog post is recorded in some database somewhere.

So, why do we need a census?

If we lived in, say, ancient Egypt or Babylonia five thousand years ago, I would understand why we needed census. The fellahin along the Nile, Tigris, and Euphrates didn’t have social insurance numbers, photo id’s and microchip readers. In such a world it would make complete sense to employ a small army of scribes armed with papyrus rolls and clay tablets to count the people and tabulate their possessions.

Even twenty years ago, back when 3 ½ inch floppy disks were considered the bee’s knee, and connecting over an acoustic coupler at 300bauds was a mind-blowing experience in global connectivity and speed, it made sense to employ thousands upon thousands of census takers to collect whatever governments needed to know.

But in 2011? Please. Why do we still bother?

Why doesn’t anybody with anything to say on this matter call the whole thing off and instead find a way to connect all those multiple databases with each other and call up the correct data when it is needed?

Instead of relying on data that’s updated every five years, we could have data that’s updated pretty much every day – or at least once a year, in the case of income data from the CRA. And instead of relying on statistical estimates from a mere 20,000 data sets (the Long Form), we would have accurate information down to the last Canadian and legal immigrant with an SIN anywhere in Canada.

Yes, going from house to house and filling out questionnaires has worked well for five thousand years. But so have have horse-drawn buggies.

Let’s get rid of the Census and bring this country into the Information Age – once and for all.